Sneaky Saturday Snow?

March 16, 2017 - Snow Storms

Updated: 0117z/20:17/8:17pm

Forecast

Tonight

Low 20°

Partly Cloudy, clearing

Friday

High 37° Low 24°

Sunny

Saturday

High 36° Low 25°

Snow, and possibly some mix. See first call accumulations map

Sunday

High 38° Low 25°

Clouds decreasing

Forecast Discussion

First call snow-map for the sneaky weekend snow, then we will get into the details!

Precipitation type issues will be something to look at, especially along the coast…will have to hone in on that tomorrow…but that is the first call. It is highly dependent on how the inverted trough sets up for SE Mass snows, and how close the system forms and timing for the more western snows. Here is the setup:

You get a reinforcing cold shot Friday night/Saturday with an Upper Low moving into the area and snows breaking out along the W/NW sides (circled) via warm advection.

See the surface map:

At the same time you have a sneaky surface low developing on the SE side of the Upper Low NRG max, and this will begin to takeover and form a storm as the UL rotates SE and then NE:

By the time the UL gets SE of the region, most of the NE PA/W NY snows are done…time to focus attention to Southern New England. In my opinion, the key at this point, since we know the coastal low is too far SE to get us much, is to get an easterly–>southeasterly flow off the NE quad of the UL as it rotates out of here. This will develop a snow band across southern new england, and that my friends is how we get to the snow totals seen above in the first call map.

IF that interaction, and the inverted trough it creates does not occur then this will be a snow event for NE PA, W NY and NYC/LOHUD and NOT Southern New England, or much of Eastern Long Island…, again, in my opinion.

We have some time to see how this works out…here is a simulated radar GIF from the NAM. Not for literal purposes, but to help illustrate what I am talking about…sneaky snows…

That’s it for now! Enjoy the rest of the evening!

Forecaster: Remy M.