When will the Warmth Return!?

March 15, 2017 - Fair Weather

Updated: 0153z/20:53/8:53pm

Forecast

Tonight

Low 17°

Snow showers possible, and blowing snow.

Thursday

High 32° Low 20°

Low level clouds will hang on longer than expected, so partly sunny and Breezy. Could get sunny if the clouds boot it quicker 😉

Friday

High 40° Low 29°

Should get nice and sunny between Systems as High Pressure briefly takes hold.

Saturday

High 40° Low 30°

Snow, then wintry mix and chance rain.

Forecast Discussion

I bet everybody enjoyed their snow day today!? Well, unfortunately we will all be in school tomorrow, but the weather will still be wintry and cold! That said, it will be dry – at least through Friday afternoon.

Our next system is a clipper that will re-form into a coastal low off the New England Coast – almost exact scenario as we just saw, except it is all happening too fast and too far East for us to get much out of it! So, Friday night will feature some light snow then chance of wintry mix and snow during the day Saturday then likely changing over to sleet or all rain for Saturday and the nighttime down here.

You can see in the first image above, however, our chance for a little something out of this system if an inverted trough can develop and enhance the precipitation shield further west. The second picture shows our steering trough only becoming NEUTRAL right over New England, and our storm developing far far offshore.

NOW – where is the warmth! I have a lot of people asking me this…where is the warmth that March and SPRING usually brings? Let’s take a brief look:

All the indexes that we look at to help us figure out medium range climate patterns will be going positive, or staying positive for the next several weeks. Some, like the EPO and NAO might dabble in the neutral range. If we use our knowledge of these indexes, then we can create a composite to figure out what they might bring for weather using the currents models data. Here you can see a composite using the indexes numbers and 50% Euro 50% GFS combination. The +AO/NAO will give less blocking, however a stormy pattern will keep recurving storms reinforcing cold. A -WPO and +PNA will help drive Western Warmth and E cooler w/ West Ridge further promoting downstream troughing in the east w/ the flow.

As you can see, a whole lot of blue over us! As mentioned before, the stormy pattern (even if we do not get a storm) will keep reinforcing the cold into the region. So…

To answer the question about warmth and when its coming…at least in the next 15 days, there is no foreseeable warmth to come for us. In fact, we have several snow chances and wintry storms lined up…so keep an eye out!

Forecaster: Remy M.