Morning update on Major Winter Storm

March 14, 2017 - Ice, Snow Storms

Updated: 1551Z/11:51/11:51AM

Forecast

Today

High 30°

Snow and wintry mix, blowing snow. An additional 3-5″ expected today.

Tonight

Low 18°

Blowing snow, snow showers, drying overnight. Little to no accumulation

Wednesday

High 30° Low 17°

Blustery, snow showers possible, cold.

Thursday

High 31° Low 17°

Mostly Sunny, blustery

Friday

High 36° Low 25°

Mostly sunny, then chance of snow.

Forecast Discussion

The warm tongue got a bit further inland over us than I thought, and hence the totals are being cut down. We should end up in the 12-18″ range rather than the 18-24″ range, although that is not too far N from here. Places 5-10mi N reporting close to 20″ already.

The storm is currently beginning to pull out, and we will get in a dry slot soon before snow fills back in during the afternoon.

Snow should be all out by mid evening:

You can see how the warm tongue @ 850mb cut down on totals by extending the Sleet further NW:

We are now beginning to see a changeover back to snow as the storm lifts to the NE passing over Long Island later today.

OUr H7 low is causing a dry slot over CNJ and parts of our area, and you can see as shown by purple the best forcing is to the N and W of the Low.

In the end, the SE totals and LI totals will have to be cut down, and NW totals will verify well. Warm air won out for the SE and NJ portions!

That is it for now, we will update later today as necessary!

Forecaster: Remy M.