Major Blizzard – Final Call

March 13, 2017 - Blizzard, Snow Storms

Updated: 0249z/21:49/9:49pm

Forecast

Tonight

Low 24°

Snow beginning after 2am, 2-4″ in the Rivertowns

Tuesday

High 28°↓

Major Blizzard. Winds 25-35mph with gusts up to 60mph possible. Blowing Snow. 10-14″ in the Rivertowns

Tuesday Night

Low 16°

Snow Ending, 1-2″ possible in the Rivertowns, gusty winds, blowing snow.

Wednesday

High 30° Low 17°

Scattered Snow Showers, little to no accumulations. Gusty Winds, Blowing snow.

Forecast Discussion

OK, we will get right to it…MAJOR Blizzard coming up for MUCH of the NE in the next 12-24 hours. Snow accumulations map below. Folks, I truly believe that someone in the red (and maybe SE a bit of it) is gonna hit into the 24″+ accumulations. GREAT snows for the ski resorts, and pretty much everybody! Let’s examine the details tho…a few important ones.

Notes on the snow map, and reasons as to why I have such “low” totals across E LI and SE MA, Cape Cod….STORM TRACK. It is NOT a classic storm track for heavy snow to the coast. We have a very GOOD setup for heavy snow for us, but with this low passing over or near Cape Cod, I see a good possibility of mixing in the SE areas! Why? Take a look:

Take a look at the vort500, or vorticity at 500 millibars:

Because this system is further W then a classic blizzard, and we have a NEUTRAL tilted trough @ z500 @ ~1pm, we get a SOUTHERLY flow. Which means that whoever is on the EAST side of the Low is getting southerly warm winds into the region. Take a look at the temperatures @ 850mb aloft at this time:

This is the HRRR, and if you look closely you can see that most of SE MA, Cape Cod, LI, parts of ESE CT and RI are all above 0°C. This spells Sleet/rain/mix to me! Not SNOW! So we cut down on the totals. NOW, as the storm rotates to the NE out of here, we can begin lowering those temperatures across LI and CT West to E, and then change back to snow – BUT for a good duration of the event, you are too warm for PURE snow…IN my opinion. New York City, You are a TOUGH call. I think we can get away with NO mixing, but you gotta watch out…I am this close to going 6-12″ with you, but I think we can pull off 12-18″

Another thing, with the z500 neutrally tilted, the storm is gonna wanna go more NNE than NE…so REALLY watch those southern and eastern zones for mixing and slop. IF you do not mix, then game is on for 1’+.

Here is the next thing to watch, very, very closely…. WINDS..and BLIZZARD conditions

This is why we have blizzard warnings across the entire area…winds and gusts up to 66kts, which is close to 80mph. DOWNED TREES, Power Lines, etc…ARE ALL POSSIBLE! You must watch this closely, and

PLEASE, if you do not need to travel – do not.

HEAVY snow will be HEAVIEST between 10-2pm, then begin SLOWLY tapering off by 7-8pm, with scattered snow showers and light snow throughout the night into Wednesday.

We will update as needed, so keep an eye on our website!

Forecaster: Remy M.