Major Snow Storm & Blizzard – First Call

March 12, 2017 - Blizzard, Snow Storms

Updated: 0141z/20:41/8:41pm

Forecast

Tonight

Low 16°

Clear & Cold

Monday

High 35° Low 22°

Mostly Sunny

Tuesday

High 28° Low 17°

Heavy snow and Blizzard conditions. See map for first call on accumulations.

Wednesday

High 30° Low 18°

Chance of snow in the morning, then cloudy.

Forecast Discussion

OK! We got our storm…lets dive right into the details. First, here is our first call snow map for accumulations. Expect some changes tomorrow.

I want to highlight some things. FIRST, the uncertainty. Minute changes in the ENERGY associated with this storm and where it phases, how strong it is, and how fast it is will mean all the difference. The GFS STILL Maintains a weaker system. It is still formidable, but not the monster the Euro/UKMET/CMC/NAM has. Why? Take a look here:

The European model is on the bottom, and the GFS on top. Notice thy are VERY similar…but have a few small differences. The GFS (Top) is more strung out with the storm and a BIT weaker. THIS is why the surface reflection is weaker, and it is still a formidable, but not monster storm. The European tucks it into the coast a bit more as well, and is a bit stronger and more compact. This is what gives the Euro the “monster” storm. I would take the middle road. I think the Euro is a tad too far W, and the GFS a tad too weak.

HOWEVER, We cannot let our guard down and must know – this is a distinct possibility, that the storm ends up as the GFS.

We will watch that aspect VERY closely! That could mean the difference in a 12-18″+fcst and 6-12″+ fcst, and we likely will not know how it turns out until the storm starts cranking, or by tomorrow afternoon.

Timing wise: Snow will begin very early Tuesday morning between 3-4am, and be heaviest between 10-2pm as the storm intensifies. See the incredible dynamics below:

This Low Level jet is just incredible – and will help fuel the heaviest snows as the storm intensifies. I also want to highlight the potential for extreme wind gusts. IF the European’s idea was to pan out, this would be the max wind gusts accumulated:

No matter what – this will be a formidable storm people! Let’s keep a close eye on it, and we will update you as we find out and forecast more!

Forecaster: Remy M.